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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."